Poll: Do these 2023 Red Sox projections seem fair?
Nothing gets me fired up for baseball season like projecting stats for all 30 MLB teams.
I know, I'm a bit of a weirdo in that sense. But it's something I've been doing since I was a kid, and seeing as there's no real science to it, it serves as a nice pastime while we get pummeled by snow.
I say there's no science to it, but you can't just randomly throw out numbers. Then there's no credibility to it either. It does take a bit of research. I look at recent season's numbers, month-by-month trends, first half vs. second half, consistency, age/career arc, minor league splits and a whole bunch of other things, but ultimately it boils down to more gut feeling than an algorithm that you plug data into and it spits out numbers.
I'm not running any sabermetric analysis to get these results. Just simple, educated guesses.
With that in mind, here's a look at my initial projections for the Sox in 2023. We're just sticking with the lineup and rotation for today. This will be added to, a bench and bullpen will be surveyed, and all that will eventually make up a win-loss projection. But that's well down the line. There's still the better part of a month of spring training left in front of us.
So, for now, let's just look at the players most people care most about...
1. Enrique Hernandez: (.240/14/61), SS
2. Rafael Devers: (.302/34/100), 3B
3. Justin Turner: (.274/13/75), DH
4. Masataka Yoshida: (.289/20/76), LF
5. Alex Verdugo: (.286/12/70), RF
6. Adam Duvall: (.222/25/72), CF
7. Triston Casas: (.260/16/67), 1B
8. Christian Arroyo: (.280/9/43), 2B
9. Reese McGuire: (.263/4/24), C
1. Chris Sale: (10-5/3.31/200), L
2. Corey Kluber: (9-10/4.48/132), R
3. Nick Pivetta: (8-10/4.73/161), R
4. James Paxton: (9-6/4.05/148), L
5. Garrett Whitlock: (8-5/3.30/135), R
6. Brayan Bello: (7-6/3.79/115), R
So, am I way off or spot-on?